AF1 Week 11 Picks
- offthewallfbpod
- 5 days ago
- 3 min read
Week 11 is here! We've got quite a playoff race brewing in the AF1, with six teams alive for the final three playoff spots and those teams going on a collision course with each other over the next 4 weeks of the season.
But before we dive into this week's picks, let's see how last week's went.
AF1 Week 10 Review
Billings -3.5 - Loser
Southwest Kansas wins 65-56, covers
Washington-Oregon Under 79.5 - Winner
Combined for 72 points
We split the weekend yet again. Small two-game platter that featured a really fun game and a really not-so-fun game. The ideology of fading the Wolfpack offense cashed again and I just can't seem to be on the ride side of a Billings spread pick over the last 2 months.
But the good news is we've got a FULL four-gamer this upcoming weekend with every team in the league in action.
LET'S FIND SOME WINNERS!
2025 AF1 Record: 17-14
Oregon Lightning vs Nashville Kats (Saturday 5/24 @ 6 PM ET)
The Play: Under 88.5
This game is the toughest one of the week to pick, in my opinion.
Oregon is riding a winning streak in which they've won three straight and scored 50+ in each of their past two games -- but you HAVE to take into account that those games happened against Washington (2x) & Corpus Christi.
Nashville is coming off a 50+ point game of their own against Albany a few weeks back, but might be without some key offensive players in this one. They've made some pretty big roster moves adding DL Jaquan Artis & WR Nih-jer Jackson from the IFL, but this one seems like it might be a little more aligned with their clash earlier in the season in downtown Nashville.
I think we see a Kats win in a very physical game.
Prediction: 44-35 Nashville
Albany Firebirds vs Corpus Christi Tritons (Saturday 5/24 @ 7 PM ET)
The Play: Albany -18.5
Don't overthink it. Firebirds.
Prediction: 63-20 Albany
Billings Outlaws vs Salina Liberty (Saturday 5/24 @ 7:30 PM ET)
The Play: Over 84.5
Both of these offenses have improved dramatically since the beginning of the season with different QBs than who they started with, and both have really been turning it up recently.
Salina has been fantastic with Rakeem Cato at QB and damn near knocked off the Firebirds in Albany in Week 8. Coming off of a couple of bye weeks, rest vs rust is something to consider but I think the Liberty will come out swinging.
The Outlaws are averaging 62.5 points per game on offense with Malik Henry at the reigns and he's been able to get it to his WRs for big chunk plays very often. Now mix in the recently signed Hunter Swoboda to get this ground game going?! Oh boy.
This'll be a fun one.
Prediction: 53-50 Billings
Washington Wolfpack vs Southwest Kansas Storm (Sunday 5/25 @ 4 PM ET)
The Play: Southwest Kansas -18.5
In a world where the Storm are as hot as they come on offense and the Wolfpack are sporting the worst scoring offense AND scoring defense in the league, you go Storm no matter what the spread is.
Southwest Kansas has the number two seed to play for still, so I would expect them to have their foot on the gas in this one. Jalen Morton will feast on this defense and I would expect to see a big game from DBs Michael Lawson & Keon Clary in this one.
Storm. Storm.
Storm.
Prediction: 53-28 Southwest Kansas
Let's have ourselves a weekend. Agree? Disagree? Are you riding or fading?
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