IFL Week 9 Picks
- offthewallfbpod
- May 16
- 6 min read
Week 9 is upon us and we are back to a full slate! All 14 teams in action this upcoming week, where I am sure we will see some majestic plays, head scratching decisions and Iowa probably making me say "why" over 5.5 times.
But before we dive into this week's lines, let's take a look at Week 8.
IFL Week 8 Review
Quad City-Green Bay Under 85.5 - Winner
Combined for 72 points
Tulsa -6.5 - Loser
Oilers win 62-57, Barnstormers cover
Bay Area ML - Loser
Arizona wins 53-48
Vegas -4.5 - Winner
Knight Hawks win 55-27
Massachusetts-Tucson Under 78.5 - Winner
Combined for 73 points
Northern Arizona-San Diego Over 81.5 - Loser
Combined for 69 points
ANUDDER 3-3 WEEK. Gahhhhhhh.
That Tulsa cover is going to haunt me for a long time. The advertised line by the IFL would have covered, but being a man of integrity I went with the line offered on the sportsbook. It also felt like Northern Arizona would've given us what we needed points wise if Kaleb Lowe didn't get KO'd on the first drive either.
A 5-1 weekend at our finger tips and just couldn't grab it. Just a rough one but we move on to the next slate. A big ol' SEVEN GAMER this weekend with another chance to chase after the Great White Buffalo... the perfect 7-0 week.
LET'S FIND SOME WINNERS!
2025 IFL Record: 25-18
Tulsa Oilers vs Quad City Steamwheelers vs Green Bay Blizzard (Friday 5/16 @ 7:05PM CT)
The Play: Over 77.5
I made an appearance earlier this week on Wager Wednesdays with Alec from Sports Coast to Coast, and I gave out Tulsa ML +124 as my pick here (which I still like), but as I spoke with Alec I began to like the Over 77.5 a little bit more.
It is still up in the air if Daquan Neal will be playing in this one, which is going to be the ultimate X-Factor in this game, but I think this line is just insanely low and should only be a coin flip if Croft gets the start at QB for Quad City.
TJ Edwards has been scorching hot over the past month -- winning 4 out of the last 6 Offensive Player of the Week awards and just turning in one unbelievable performance after another. If Neal doesn't play, this Over is going to take some heavy lifting from Tulsa but their offense is more than capable of doing the job.
(also special Quad City jerseys at home will probably give the Steamwheelers offense some superpowers, I don't make the rules it's just the way it goes.)
Prediction: 45-39 Tulsa
Tucson Sugar Skulls vs Bay Area Panthers (Friday 5/16 @ 9:05PM CT)
The Play: Tucson +10.5
The lines for this game have me in an absolute torture chamber. Bay Area had a slew of Transactions on the IFL's transactions list, including WR RZ McCorker being put on the Season IR & DB Joe Foucha being put on the Short Term IR, while filling in various holes after a tough loss vs Arizona last week.
To me, the loss of those two players opens up Bay Area for a much tighter game than you'd expect -- ESPECIALLY with how Tucson's defense has been playing so far this season and the offense recently turning it on.
Jorge Reyna has looked and this Tucson ground game has been strong... and Bay Area's rushing defense is coming in ranked 10th in the league through the first 8 weeks of the season.
This feels like a game where Tucson is gonna be able to keep it close and limit the number of possessions for Bay Area, and I think they have a good chance at the upset here.
DO YOU BELIEVE IN THE SUGAR SKULLS?!
Prediction: 40-36 Tucson
Fishers Freight vs Jacksonville Sharks (Saturday 5/17 @ 6:05PM CT)
The Play: Under 80.5
I am terrified at how much I love this pick. Jacksonville has been playing really great defense all year long, while their offense has struggled through most of the season to be as efficient as they could be.
Fishers has quite the QB conundrum where it seems like no matter who they choose to start, it should have been the other guy and their offense continues to be run oriented with a side of poor passing. Mix in the Sharks' tendency to cough up a couple of turnovers per game on offense, and this one seems like it is destined for a total right around 70.
Prediction: 39-32 Jacksonville
San Diego Strike Force vs San Antonio Gunslingers (Saturday 5/17 @ 6:05PM CT)
The Play: San Diego -3.5
San Diego has shown some signs of improvement on offense the past couple of weeks, while San Antonio has not.
San Diego's defense has been playing well the past couple of weeks, while San Antonio's has not.
San Diego has Ed Vander, San Antonio does not. (plz use him effectively San Diego..plz)
I just have a hard time putting very much faith in this Gunslingers team that is still searching for answers on offense. It feels like this game should be -6.5 San Diego just based on recent form of both teams, so I'll take the extra 3 points in value and roll with the Strike Force.
Prediction: 45-35 San Diego
Green Bay Blizzard vs Iowa Barnstormers (Saturday 5/17 @ 7:05PM CT)
The Play: Green Bay -6.5
Iowa has been teh backdoor cover kings so far this season, covering in the dying moments of the game earlier this season against Green Bay and literally just last week against Tulsa after being down 31 in the 4th quarter.
This is probably going to age very poorly, but give me Green Bay -6.5! I am ready to be hurt again.
This Blizzard team is really starting to turn a corner and look really efficient, and they had a renewed focus on running the ball last week with Kimo Clark. Iowa offense continues to start slow in game and will probably give us a sweat towards the end, but that's what makes picks so exciting! Right?
Prediction: 53-40 Green Bay
Vegas Knight Hawks vs Arizona Rattlers (Saturday 5/17 @ 8:05PM CT)
The Play: Vegas +5.5
Vegas seems like they are on the cusp of going on a big run through the middle portion of this season with how the running game has developed with Antonio Wimbush & Ja'rome Johnson being able to take care of the ball again and find the big play. Arizona has been dealing with a slew of injuries the past couple of weeks and was able to edge out Bay Area last week, but it feels like a game that Vegas could swoop in and steal. The Knight Hawks need to lean into their style of play, find a way to get an early stop on Arizona and sprinkle in some Ja'Rome Johnson scrambling magic to slingshot themselves to the top of the Western Conference.
Vegas was able to beat the Rattlers twice in the regular season last year before falling to them in the playoffs -- give me the Knight Hawks and the points.
Prediction: 46-41 Vegas
Massachusetts Pirates vs Northern Arizona Wranglers (Sunday 5/18 @ 4:05PM CT)
The Play: Northern Arizona +2.5
Thank god there is a ~18 hour buffer between the end of the Vegas-Arizona game beginning of this game because the difference between these two is going to be STARTLING.
Both teams have been dealing with subpar QB play this season, with the winless Wranglers feeling the effects a bit more with less 'name brand' firepower than the Pirates on both sides of the ball. It remains to be seen if QB Kaleb Lowe will get the start this week after getting rocked last week into the boards against San Diego -- or if we see the season debut of QB Ramone Atkins, who was a tantalizing rookie a few years back.
I think either QB would be a step in the right direction and I think Northern Arizona has been knocking on the door of a win for longer than we realize -- they just needed the QB play to be slightly above average (not even great or good, just not terrible).
The Pirates defense has been playing well but the play of Kenji Bahar has just not been good through the air. I feel like we could see Felix Harper soon (if not in this game), but let's give it a shot. LET'S GO GET THE FIRST DUB OF THE SEASON NORTHERN ARIZONA!
Prediction: 40-36 Northern Arizona
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