I told you last week in our Week 7 Betting Picks blog that Off The Wall was thawing out and you could feel it in the air. Well guess what?
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PROMISES MADE AND PROMISES DELIVERED, FOLKS!
WE TURNED IN A 7-1 CARD AND WE ARE IN THE GROOVE!!!!
Week 7 Review
Iowa Barnstormers-Green Bay Blizzard - Over 77.5 - Loser
Combined for 73 points
San Antonio Gunslingers vs Frisco Fighters - San Antonio +16.5 - Winner
San Antonio wins outright by 2
Duke City Gladiators vs Vegas Knight Hawks - Under 86.5 - Winner
Combined for 69 points
Massachusetts Pirates vs Sioux Falls Storm - Under 88.5* - Winner
Combined for 81 points
*In the blog last week, I posted Over 88.5 -- until it was announced that QB Alejandro Bennifield was out. I flipped the pick before kick off.
Gotta follow on socials, folks!
Northern Arizona Wranglers vs Tucson Sugar Skulls - Tucson +5.5 - Winner
Tucson covers, losing by 3
Tulsa Oilers vs Quad City Steamwheelers - Over 82.5 - Winner
Combined for 131 points (lol)
Jacksonville Sharks vs Arizona Rattlers - Over 82.5 - Winner
Combined for 90 points
Bay Area Panthers vs San Diego Strike Force - San Diego +3 - Winner
San Diego covers, loses by 1
7-1 and we are so back. You can make a case that this SHOULD have been 8-0, but we won't do that. I'm not gonna be that guy that says the runner wasn't officially down on that last run of the Iowa-Green Bay game and should have been able to advance the ball across the goal line, therefore hitting the Over 77.5
Nope! Won't be that guy. No sir.
2024 IFL Record: 20-21
Let's keep this heater going and LET'S FIND SOME WINNERS!
Jacksonville Sharks vs Tulsa Oilers (Friday 5/3, 7:05PM CT)
The Play: Over 82.5
That bucket of oil represents points..hopefully.
Eventually this Sharks offense has to score above 35, right? Jacksonville's offense had a good first half last week in Arizona, but just ran out of steam in the second half. They had 3 straight scoreless drives that allowed the Rattlers to pull ahead for good. QB Fred Payton Jr hasn't looked bad and was fairly efficient last week, but just didn't make the plays they needed in the key moments.
Tulsa has proven they can score points, and then more points, and then more points -- coming off of a week where they dropped 72 on Quad City and QB Daniel Smith accounted for 8 total TDs.
The common sense logic here is to say "This Sharks offense STINKS, Off The Wall! STAYAWAY", but I'm gonna fade that logic. Give me the Over.
Prediction: 48-40 Tulsa
Green Bay Blizzard vs Sioux Falls Storm (Friday 5/3, 7:05PM CT)
The Play: Over 79.5
The Blizz are just gonna keep Blizzing aren't they?
I'm not sure I will ever be able to correctly make a Green Bay pick. We need everybody's full focus on making this come to fruition. Every now and then, you have to make a pick that you don't like -- but it works out BECAUSE you don't like it. That's what this is.
The Blizzard are a very, very good team. Yes, Green Bay Overs are 1-4 on the season, and was arguably one play away from hitting last week as well (again, I'm NOT gonna be that guy). The last time these two teams played was the only time this season that Green Bay was involved in an Over.
Sioux Falls' offense has had a high floor all season (scoring in the high 30s to low 40s since Week 2) but hasn't been able to stretch beyond 41 points in a single game. Statistically, they are due to pop off, but we just need them to meet their floor for this to work. Green Bay is going to have success on offense, especially running the ball, and should hit this some time early in the 4th quarter.
Prediction: 48-42 Green Bay
Frisco Fighters vs San Antonio Gunslingers (Saturday 5/4, 6:05PM CT)
The Play: Frisco -7
Fighters-Gunslingers might make Tombstone look like Toy Story.
Frisco is a very, very good team and it is a tall task for anybody to beat them twice in a season -- let alone twice in back to back weeks. Frisco's defense will certainly have to make adjustments to avoid getting picked apart by Sam Castronova again.
San Antonio has turned a corner after a disastrous start to the season on defense, and they will have a good game on offense -- it will just come down to if they can replicate last wees success in getting a couple of stops against Frisco and taking advantage of it.
The Total of 103.5 scares me, but I'm having a hard time taking any Under where Sam Castronova is involved.
Prediction: 54-44 Frisco
Quad City Steamwheelers vs Iowa Barnstormers (Saturday 5/4, 7:05PM CT)
The Play: Over 83.5
Probably what it feels like to be a Barnstormers fan this year.
Quad City & Iowa are both teams that struggled a bit out of the gate on offense (one more than the other), but have really been turning a corner recently. I like how Iowa's offense is trending with Kyle King at the helm, and QB Judd Erickson has been awesome for Quad City the past couple of weeks.
Quad City is fresh off of giving up 72 to Tulsa, while Iowa got stymied last week by a stout Green Bay defense. If both offenses get off to a decent start, they should be able to get to 83.5 pretty comfortably.
Prediction: 50-41 Quad City
Vegas Knight Hawks vs Bay Area Panthers (Saturday 5/4, 8:05PM CT)
The Play: Under 88.5
*Me all game*
THE BATTLE OF THE LAST TWO REMAINING UNDEFEATED TEAMS! This is going to be a great game, and would be lovely if this turned into a shootout...
But unfortunately the data (and the eye test) says other wise.
Bay Area Unders are 4-1 & Vegas Unders are 3-2 on the season. Bay Area has a great defense that puts a ton of pressure on the QB, while Vegas' defense is young and fast to collapse on the ball in space. Ja'Rome Johnson looked rough last week before getting pulled, and Daquan Neal didn't look his best either.
For the sake of the entertainment of the game itself, I hope I am wrong here. If it's low scoring, I win (the pick). If it's high scoring, I win (by being thoroughly entertained).
Win-win baby!
Prediction: 40-36 Bay Area
Northern Arizona Wranglers vs San Diego Strike Force (Sunday 5/5, 5:05PM CT)
The Play: Over 88.5
Hell yeah Garlic Sauce & Pepperoncino - you tell 'em!
I just can't see a world where San Diego's offense has another poor performance like they did last week. They will be without WRs Arthur Jackson III & Hoodie Rodgers due to last week's fiasco in the stands, but Nate Davis is still Nate Davis. I would expect a healthy workload for Chance Bell in this game as well.
For Northern Arizona, after a couple explosive weeks early on offense, they have cooled off the past couple of weeks. If they can get the ball into the hands of other players on offense on the ground game besides QB Josh Jones, they should get back on track.
Prediction: 50-42 San Diego
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