To quote the immortal Chumbawumba:
I get knocked down, but I get up again
You're never gonna keep me down (x4)
We technically did better in Week 5 than Week 4, but man it didn't feel like it. In the first 3 games, we were covering until the final dying moments and we went from 5-1 to 2-4 in a hurry. It's tough to win in this league!
Week 5 Review
Iowa Barnstormers-Massachusetts Pirates - Under 81.5 - Loser
Combined for 83 points (Safety with 3 min left to cover)
San Antonio Gunslingers-Vegas Knight Hawks - Under 102.5 - Loser
Combined for 110 points (TD with 44 seconds left to hit)
Quad City Steamwheelers-Frisco Fighters - Quad City +11.5 - Loser
Frisco wins by 17 (scoring a TD with 5 seconds left to cover)
Tulsa Oilers-Sioux Falls Storm - Over 77.5 - Winner
Combined for 96 points
San Diego Strike Force-Arizona Rattlers - San Diego +2.5 - Winner
San Diego wins outright, 55-45
Bay Area Panthers-Tucson Sugar Skulls - Over 95.5
Combined for 75 points
But to quote the EVEN MORE immortal Randy Marsh, I DIDN'T HEAR NO BELL!
Have our picks been horrendous lately? Yep! Has that ever stopped us before? Nope! We've got our first FULL slate of the year where every team in the league is playing, and that my friends is the sound of opportunity to right the ship and get back on track.
2024 IFL Record: 9-16
LET'S FIND SOME WINNERS!
Tucson Sugar Skulls vs San Antonio Gunslingers (Thursday 4/18 @ 6:30PM CT)
The Play: San Antonio +4.5
Did this game happen yesterday and is already a winner? YEP! SURE DID.
If you follow me on Twitter, you would have gotten this winner before the game (check the timestamps, brother)
Starting off 1-0 feels great! Let's keep the good vibes going!
Gunslingers win 60-36
Sioux Falls Storm vs Green Bay Blizzard (Friday 4/19 @ 6:05PM CT)
The Play: Under 81.5
A Blizzard is coming (close enough)
I hate picking an Under that is this low, but it's the right play based on the data. Green Bay Unders are 3-0 this year thanks to their terrorizing defensive line and their ball control offense. Their defense ranks #1 in the league in Defensive Efficiency, and they average the 2nd least passing yards per game in the league on offense.
Green Bay plays ugly football but it works for them. Sioux Falls offense is a bit of a mess right now, so this game script is setting up to fall right into Green Bay's lap.
Prediction: 38-30 Green Bay
Vegas Knight Hawks vs Jacksonville Sharks (Saturday 4/20 @ 6:05PM CT)
The Play: Over 83.5
Hopefully going to be me IRL look at the scoreboard.
Vegas is red hot on offense after scoring 66 last week and this is a do or die game for the Sharks. If they fall to 0-4, they will be in a very, very deep hole to climb out of the rest of the year. Jacksonville has some new signings from the past week on offense that we could see make a debut.
I trust Ja'Rome Johnson & company to do their part for Vegas. I just need SOMEBODY on Jacksonville to step up and do theirs (please)
Prediction: 48-40 Vegas
Arizona Rattlers vs Iowa Barnstormers (Saturday 4/20 @ 7:05PM CT)
The Play: Over 81.5
Let the spirit of Caitlin Clark take over you, Iowa.
Iowa has looked incredibly bad on offense through the first three weeks of the season, but they have also gone up against 3 of the Top 5 defenses in the league so far this year in terms of Defensive Efficiency (Green Bay, Tulsa, Massachusetts).
Now, is it because those teams have good defenses? Or because they had the opportunity to play Iowa? This game will determine the answer to that question because Arizona's defense is the worst in the league against the run, which plays right into Iowa's 'strength' on offense. (I use the word strength very loosely there)
Arizona's offense will do their part, but we need an awakening from Iowa this week and they are primed to do so in terms of their matchup. Both teams need this win badly.
Prediction: 49-45 Arizona
Frisco Fighters vs Tulsa Oilers (Saturday 4/20 @ 7:05PM CT)
The Play: Tulsa +7
Make this man the mascot ASAP
Man, I thought this line would have been close to -3.5, but I get it. Frisco has been a regular season world beater the past couple of seasons and Tulsa only really woke up on offense last week...
BUT GIVE ME THE OILERS +7, BABY!
Tulsa's defense has been an incredible strength for them this season and should be able to get some stops against Frisco. Frisco has yet to win a game where they had to throw the ball, and if Tulsa can contain TJ Edwards to the best of their abilities, they can walk away with the win (at the very least a cover please, thank u).
Also, Tulsa is 3-0 ATS this year. The BOK Center is going to be rocking in Tulsa.
Prediction: 48-45 Tulsa
Massachusetts Pirates vs Quad City Steamwheelers (Saturday 4/20 @ 7:05PM CT)
The Play: Over 85.5
Plz Quad City..plz.
I HATE how many overs I am taking this week, but this one is ripe for the picking. Massachusetts has looked very efficient on offense through the first quarter of the season and will be getting even better with the (hopeful) return of Jimmie Robinson to the lineup.
Pirates QB Alejandro Bennifield has looked great throwing the ball this year, and should be able to connect with TO & Freako Zico for some scores throughout the game. Quad City will be put in a position where they will have to throw the ball a ton, and their efficiency and participation in scoring points will make or break this pick.
Prediction: 51-39 Pirates
San Diego Strike Force vs Bay Area Panthers (Saturday 4/20 @ 8:05PM CT)
The Play: San Diego -2.5
I've got a need for an AIR RAID OFFENSE!
This is going to be the best game of the weekend and is by far one of the hardest to pick -- and we get it next week too! Both teams come into the game 3-0 ATS, but Nate Davis will be back in the line up for San Diego this week after leaving last week with an injury. San Diego was able to run the ball pretty well last week, but it remains to be seen if they will be able to replicate that exact success with Davis at the helm. He'll be tossing it all over the yard.
Bay Area's offense ran into a little trouble last week, which prompted a QB switch at halftime, but their defense is going to keep them in this one. This will be a tight game, but I think the Strike Force pull off the win here before the rematch next week in San Diego.
Prediction: 42-38 San Diego
Duke City Gladiators vs Northern Arizona Wranglers (Saturday 4/20 @ 8:05PM CT)
The Play: Over 90.5
Is that technically a Wrangler? Idk whatever
This game is a recipe for a track meet. It would not surprise me in the least bit to see multiple one play drives ending in scores for each team. Northern Arizona's offense was white hot heading into the bye week, and Duke City has been able to put up points despite their self inflicted wounds and costly turnovers to start the season.
Duke City has a decent chance to cover the 10.5 IF they come out of the bye protecting the football on offense, but I like the Over a little more here.
Prediction: 55-49 Northern Arizona
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