IFL Week 5 Picks
- offthewallfbpod
- Apr 19
- 4 min read
Week 5 is here! Not gonna lie to y'all, we started off ice cold last week but managed to bag a couple of winners to make the most of it.
Let's dig into the decisions that were made:
IFL Week 4 Review
Tulsa +3.5 - Loser
Green Bay wins 74-68 in OT
San Diego-Vegas O84.5 - Loser
Combined for 62 points
Massachusetts +5.5 - Winner
Mass wins outright 50-47
Iowa-Quad City O85.5 - Winner
Combined for 88 points
San Antonio-Arizona Under 85.5 - Loser
Combined for 118 points
Jacksonville -8.5 - Loser
Jacksonville wins 28-21, does not cover
Northern Arizona-Bay Area Under 81.5 - Winner
Combined for 78 points
3-4 week is not ideal but we had some narrow defeats in there! (and some narrow victories, admittedly)
Tulsa was in control of that entire game until overtime, and Jacksonville's offense just decided against laying it on thick like they are fully capable of doing.
We're getting a better idea of who some of these teams are now, so let's put our hard hats on and head into the coal mines of IFL sports betting and dig up some spreads and totals.
LET'S FIND SOME WINNERS!
2025 IFL Record: 12-9
Before we get into individual games, we've got multiple books offering lines here, so this just got a lot more interesting! The lines are similar, but not quite the same. Being able to shop lines between books is crucial so make sure you do your due diligence!
Massachusetts Pirates vs Jacksonville Sharks (Saturday 4/19 @ 6:05PM CT)
The Play: Pirates +6.5
I really, really liked what I saw from the Pirates last week. QB Kenji Bahar looked really great for the first time this season and was really getting the ball to his playmakers, and RB Pooka Williams played really well in his utility back role.
The Pirates offense vs the Sharks defense is going to be extremely interesting, just because this is a different Mass team than what Jax faced in Week 1 -- but at the same time the Sharks defense has been playing lights out in their two games against Vegas & Tucson.
On the other side, Jacksonville's offense is a littttttttttle worrisome. The points scored have trended in the wrong direction for the Sharks over the past three games (46 -> 38 -> 28) and the Pirates defense has played pretty well in the spots they've been given this season.
I think the Pirates have a chance to steal this one in Duval County and this will be a little closer than some people may think.
Prediction: 43-39 Pirates
Bay Area Panthers vs Fishers Freight (Saturday 4/19 @ 6:05PM CT)
The Play: Under 80.5
This Bay Area defense is so damn impressive. They have been playing outstanding through the first 3 games of the season -- keeping their opponents to 28, 18 & 28 points and coming up with turnovers at a really great rate.
They are coming off of a game where they scored 50 points themselves, but when you takeaway 2 Pick Sixes & a Kick Return TD -- you're looking at an offensive output in the low 30s? Offensively they aren't quite there yet, so check in the Under column.
For Fishers, they have a similar DNA to Bay Area (which makes sense when you look at the head coach) in that they play great defense and ball control offense -- specifically running with the QB. They manage to eat up a lot of clock on offense and play stout defense. Check number 2 in the Under column.
Bay Area Unders are 3-0, while Fishers Unders are 2-1. Let's not overthink this one, folks.
D-Fence! D-Fence!
Prediction: 40-31 Bay Area
San Antonio Gunslingers vs Tulsa Oilers (Saturday 4/19 @ 7:05PM CT)
The Play: Tulsa -2.5
I WILL EVENTUALLY BE RIGHT WITH TULSA SPREAD PICKS, DAMNIT.
The Oilers offense absolutely exploded last week, scoring 68 points in Green Bay and TJ Edwards was finally able to uncork the explosiveness that group is capable of. For San Antonio, they are coming off of a week where they just gave up 63 points to Arizona and their defense looks WILDLY different from the first time these teams played.
All-IFL LB Jordan Jones was released this week after getting ejected in Week 4 & All-IFL DB Ravarius Rivers got called back up to the UFL (technically didn't play in the first game but still a big loss) -- and those absences were felt last week. The offense was able to fight back with the returns of WRs Nyqwan Murray & Kali Rashad, but the defense is what has me rolling with Tulsa.
San Antonio's defense gave up 9 rushing touchdowns last week to Arizona -- and now you are putting them against the best dual threat QB in the league over the past few years?
Tulsa, Tulsa, Tulsa.
Prediction: 51-43 Tulsa
Tucson Sugar Skulls vs Northern Arizona Wranglers (Saturday 4/19 @ 8:05PM CT)
The Play: Northern Arizona -4.5
This is gonna be a rough one because both teams, quite frankly, have not looked good to start the season... like, at all.
Tucson scoring 28 vs Arizona, then 21 vs Jacksonville
Northern Arizona scoring 29 vs Fishers, then 28 vs Bay Area.
But the differentiator for me in this one is QB continuity:
Tucson will be trotting out a 3rd different starting QB in their 3rd game of the year, while Northern Arizona will (presumably) be sending out CJ Fowler for his 3rd start of the season.
Northern Arizona's issues have also been very self inflicted, with 2 Pick Sixes in each of their first two games, so continuity should help get those things under control.
I'd probably lean toward the Under 78.5 here as well, but this is probably one of the few games where we see Northern Arizona favored this year so let's ride with it.
Prediction: 41-36 Northern Arizona
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