Last week I made a decision heading into the weekend of IFL game. I decided that I was going to go 6-0 in my picks. The plan was quite simple:
Find winners
Pick winners
Don't pick losers
Heading into Sunday, I was sitting at 5-0 and just needed San Diego +1 to be immortalized in the history books for generations to look back on.
...but then disaster struck.
From being dead in the entire first half, to coming alive and looking great with 20 seconds left, to being dead again 10 seconds later. This league is not for the faint of heart.
Knowing the disappointment and dishonor I brought upon my family's name, I issued an apology for not following through the only way I know how: through the Notes app.
Week 11 Review
Green Bay Blizzard vs Iowa Barnstormers - Over 80.5 - Winner
Combined for 94 points
Tulsa Oilers vs Massachusetts Pirates - Tulsa +10 - Winner
Massachusetts wins by 23-22, Tulsa covers
Duke City Gladiators vs Arizona Rattlers - +14.5 - Winner
Arizona wins 55-53, Duke City covers
San Antonio Gunslingers vs Bay Area Panthers - Over 106.5 - Winner
Combined for 73 points
Tucson Sugar Skulls vs Northern Arizona Wranglers - Over 86.5 - Winner
Combined for 113 points
Frisco Fighters vs San Diego Strike Force - San Diego +1 - Loser
Frisco wins 44-41
Devastating. To be so close to greatness and immortality and have it slip right through the fingertips. Now I know how the San Francisco 49ers feel every single they've made a Super Bowl in this millenium.
And before you say, "But Off The Wall, why don't you just go 7-0 this week?"
IT'S NOT THAT SIMPLE, OKAY. If Babe Ruth pointed at the outfield every time he went up to bat, it would be iconic when he hits a home run right after doing. You have to pick and choose your spots, and last week was the spot. smh thanks a lot San Diego
2024 IFL Record: 35-34
LET'S FIND SOME WINNERS!
Quad City Steamwheelers vs Green Bay Blizzard (Friday 5/31, 7:05PM CT)
The Play: Quad City +10.5
Can I go the whole blog just using Simpsons gifs?
On the year Quad City is 3-0 in Friday night games, while Green Bay is 3-1. Green Bay has the best defense in the IFL this year and it starts with their ability to apply pressure on the QB with tight coverage in the secondary. But they have shown that teams CAN run the ball on them -- allowing the 4th most yards per game on the season.
The key for Quad City is going to be balance in the running game from start to finish, and I think they have just the guy to do that in RB PJ Vander. He's dynamic and has shown his ability to make an impact in the passing game as well.
If Quad City can play their game and stay committed to running the ball, they have a chance to not just cover but also pull off the upset.
Prediction: 45-43 Green Bay
Arizona Rattlers vs Jacksonville Sharks (Saturday 6/1, 6:05PM CT)
The Play: Under 92.5
Oh yes, we're doing this.
I don't love this play, but truthfully I am in a predicament with these teams.
Arizona is 1-8 Against the Spread this year (yuck)
Jacksonville is playing their first game after gutting their roster and signing new players. They also are not good (double yuck)
I can't trust either team fully when it comes to the spread of -12. Jacksonville's offense has struggle all season and this number may be a little inflated because of their last game where they scored 42. The reality is they had scored 28 through the first 59 minutes of the game, then scored a couple of garbage time TDs in the last minute to only lose by 10.
I expect Arizona to come out swinging after their near meltdown vs Duke City last week and this one should be in the Rattlers control from start to finish.
Prediction: 46-39
Iowa Barnstormers vs Sioux Falls Storm (Saturday 6/1, 7:05PM CT)
The Play: Sioux Falls -6.5
Hand up - this one is weak but you are just gonna have to deal with it.
I really like this spot for Sioux Falls. They are 2-1 in games that Lorenzo Brown has played a major role in -- whether starting or coming in relief -- and have looked like a totally different team with him in the mix. His veteran experience has played a crucial role in stabilizing this offense and raising the floor of their potential -- which is what they've needed all year.
Iowa is in a tough spot at QB, having just released Darius-James Peterson this week and traded for a familiar face at QB in Daniel Smith, indicating that Kyle King's injury is much more serious than Iowa is leading on.
The Barnstormers are either starting Zach Reader or Daniel Smith at QB this week, in which it would be their first start with the team this season (for whomever gets the start).
Sioux Falls is on the rise and Iowa is still somewhat falling. Don't overthink this one.
Prediction: 49-38 Sioux Falls
Massachusetts Pirates vs Frisco Fighters (Saturday 6/1, 7:05PM CT)
The Play: Over 86.5
We're back on track now.
This is a tricky one that requires some mental gymnastics, so walk with me here:
Has the Pirates offense been on the decline the past few games? Yes.
Has Frisco's offense not looked their best the past few games? Also yes.
Did both defenses look good last week? Again, yes.
So why are we going with the Over? Because sometimes you have to fade your brain and go against the grain.
The Pirates offense HAS to wake up at some point this season and they just reactivated WR Isaac Zico from the IR, who was dynamic for them on offense and special teams before injury.
Frisco also just shuffled the deck in their defense this past week, releasing 2 starting DBs and putting another DL on the IR. If there was ever a week for the Pirates bounce back, it's this one!
Mix in the fact that Frisco Overs are 7-2 on the season and we are back to believing! This is also the lowest total on the board this week, so I'm morally obligated to take the Over.
Prediction: 52-47 Frisco
San Diego Strike Force vs Tulsa Oilers (Saturday 6/1, 7:05PM CT)
The Play: San Diego -8
Why did it take me until the 5th game to do a generic football one?
After last week's heartbreaker, I think we're about to see a very pissed off San Diego team take the field against Tulsa. I would expect a healthy dose of RB Chance Bell & RB/WR/QB/DB/KR Rudy Johnson on the ground against the last ranked Tulsa run defense, with QB Nate Davis dinking and dunking on the play action along the way.
Tulsa has been their own worst enemy on offense and they are going to go against one of the better passing defense units in the league. I just can't see how Tulsa can keep up with the Strike Force in this one.
Prediction: 54-40 San Diego
Northern Arizona Wranglers vs Vegas Knight Hawks (Saturday 6/1, 8:05PM CT)
The Play: Under 100.5
Need to see a player bust out this celly this weekend.
I think this line is a litttttle high.
Only 3 NAZ games this season have gone over 100 points and each of those games were played against defenses ranked bottom four in the league in points per game allowed (Tucson x2, San Antonio). I feel like this total is inflated due to a monster game they had last week scoring 60 against Tucson, and the reality is this is gonna be a bit more of a slugfest than you would think.
If Ja'Rome Johnson is fully healthy and good to go after their bye week, this total has a shot. But if Jorge Reyna gets the start, I'd expect this to turn into a ball control affair by both teams and be much lower scoring than you would think.
Prediction: 46-41 Vegas
Duke City Gladiators vs Tucson Sugar Skulls (Saturday 6/1, 8:05PM CT)
The Play: Over 91.5
Homer Simpson = Revolutionary
Duke City is averaging 43.3 PPG since Joe Mancuso took over at QB, including 2 games scoring 50+ points.
Tucson is averaging 45.3 PPG since Mylik Mitchell came back from injury, including 2 games scoring 50+ points.
I can easily see this game going over 100+ and probably being the highest scoring game of the weekend. AND it's a Tucson blackout jersey game?! Yep. Points, points, POINTS!
Prediction: 56-51 Tucson
Comments