AF1 Week 6 Picks
- offthewallfbpod
- Apr 19
- 4 min read
We had quite an interesting slate in the AF1 last week.
The Battle for Kansas begrudgingly crowned a winner, Billings got boat raced in Albany and Washington went full Washington..again.
Here's how the picks went:
AF1 Week 5 Review
Salina +6.5 - Winner
Southwest Kansas wins 22-20, Salina covers
Corpus Christi-Washington O72.5 - Winner
Combined for 82 points
Billings +9.5 - Loser
Albany wins 62-24
Winner, winner, not a winner!
Shoutout to Salina, they still can't win a game but they finally covered (!), which is just as important. Corpus Christi LIT UP Washington, and everything that could have went wrong for Billings did, in fact, go wrong in their trip to upstate New York. We've got some good momentum heading into Week 6, and we already had a game last night -- but I've got great news..
We started 1-0.
One down, three to go.
LET'S FIND SOME WINNERS!
2025 AF1 Record: 9-6
Oregon Lightning vs Salina Liberty (Saturday 4/19 @ 7:30 PM ET)
The Play: Under 78.5
I hate picking Unders. I hate it, hate it, HATE IT. But this one feels right.
Oregon's defense just recently brought in some reinforcements in LB Jeremiah Spicer (most recently with Arizona Bandits) & DL Freddie Booth-Lloyd (most recently with Orlando Predators), and has been playing pretty well this year.
The offense had been coming along throughout the year, but recently let go of WR Tom Butters who was finally bringing a consistent running game to the Lightning. (Also, how do you cut a guy named Butters? Come on)
For Salina, this week they brought in a new QB (Rakeem Cato, most recently with Nashville), as well as some new WRs (Larry Beavers Jr, most recently with Arizona Bandits) to help kick start this offense that has simply been dreadful.
Salina's defense has been able to get after the QB and keep them in games this year, and would expect more of the same here.
Bad Salina offense + new QB + good defense vs Bi-polar Oregon offense + new reinforcements on a solid defense = The Under
Prediction: 38-34 Salina
Southwest Kansas Storm vs Corpus Christi Tritons (Saturday 4/19 @ 8 PM ET)
The Play: Over 81.5
Ahhhhh, back to an Over. I feel much better.
Corpus Christi has really impressed me on offense with what they have been able to do so far this season, and they still have potential ahead of them. QB Fred Payton has been getting better every week and they are getting a lot of WRs involved -- Darius Prince (or Daris Price) has been doing what he is known for in creating space in the secondary, but they've been finding creative ways to get big bodied WR Quintavius Workman the ball more often.
If Corpus Christi can continue to play how they have, they can put up 45+ with ease.
When looking at Southwest Kansas, they looked BAD last week. They tried their absolute best to give the game away to Salina, but Salina simply refused and gave it right back. This is a big prove it week for a lot of teams in the league, but it feels like it is even BIGGER for the Storm.
They are one Hail Mary play away from being 4-1 on the year and can be electric on offense when QB Jalen Morton is on his game. I think we see a big bounce back from this offense in a shootout against the Tritons.
Prediction: 52-45 Corpus Christi
Albany Firebirds v Billings Outlaws (Sunday 4/20 @ 6 PM ET)
The Play: Billings +9.5
I know, I KNOW! This might be a terrible idea. But hear me out.
The opening drive Billings last week in Albany had a good rhythm and pace to it before they threw the interception and it all came unraveled. Everything that could have went wrong for Billings in that first half went wrong and they were just in a nightmare.
What if that kick return TD doesn't get run back? What if that barball doesn't happen immediately after that? The difference between a 35-7 game and a 21-7 game is massive.
But that game also feels like the wake up call that the Outlaws may have needed to get their affairs in order. Coach Walker is one of the best in the business and should have his team ready to play in this one -- and this is Billings' first home game of the year (in Week 6!), so that home crowd should help them out here.
If QB Braden Wingle can come out and get into a flow, the Outlaws can keep up and keep this a one score game at the very least. Feels like this one is gonna be much closer than last time, with Billings having a decent shot at avenging last week's loss.
They surely own't get boat raced again, right?
Right?
Prediction: 44-42 Albany
Let's have ourselves a weekend. Agree? Disagree? Are you riding or fading?
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